Abstract

Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) face a convergence of climate change, debt, and food insecurity challenges that threaten their stability and development. Climate-induced shocks devastate livelihoods, increase food insecurity, and strain public finances, pushing many FCAS into unsustainable debt cycles. These pressures undermine investments in social protection systems, which are critical for building resilience and stabilising economies.

The side eventwill explore innovative solutions to these challenges, with Somalia as a case study. It will highlight the role of anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection systems, innovative financing mechanisms, and debt relief in breaking the cycle of fragility.

The event will advance dialogue among policymakers, international organisations, and donors to develop actionable recommendations for integrating climate resilience into debt frameworks, scaling climate finance, and strengthening social protection in FCAS. It will aim to catalyse international support and inspire sustainable, inclusive solutions for the world’s most vulnerable states.

Context

Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) are facing a confluence of challenges that threaten their stability and development. Climate change intensifies these vulnerabilities, with its impacts on food security, sovereign debt sustainability, and the capacity to invest in critical social protection systems. In FCAS, recurrent droughts, floods, and other climate-induced shocks devastate livelihoods, reduce agricultural productivity, and force millions into distress migration, creating additional pressures on fragile social systems.

These states often lack fiscal space to respond to crises effectively. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate shocks lead to revenue shortfalls, higher expenditures, and unsustainable debt burdens. As governments borrow to bridge funding gaps, the risk of sovereign debt defaults rises, diverting resources from essential social services to debt servicing. This situation significantly undermines investments in social protection systems—tools that are proven to enhance resilience by supporting vulnerable populations before, during, and after climate-induced shocks.

Food insecurity is another urgent concern in FCAS. Climate change undermines all four pillars of food security—availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability. For instance, erratic weather patterns disrupt food production, rising prices limit accessibility, and climate-induced health challenges compromise food utilization. Meanwhile, fragile institutions and conflicts further weaken food systems, leaving millions on the brink of starvation.

To address these challenges, anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection systems are crucial. By integrating early warning mechanisms, risk-informed planning, and innovative financing models, these systems can mitigate the impact of climate risks, reduce vulnerabilities, and foster long-term resilience. However, for FCAS to implement such systems effectively, they require comprehensive debt relief, access to climate finance, and targeted international assistance.

This side event aims to highlight the critical intersection of climate impacts, debt sustainability, and food security in FCAS. It will present key findings from the upcoming paper on Somalia as a case study while exploring broader challenges faced by FCAS in addressing these interconnected crises. The event seeks to catalyze dialogue among policymakers, international organizations, and donors to drive action on climate finance, debt restructuring, and investments in adaptive social protection to secure resilient futures for FCAS population.

Key Objectives of the Event

• Highlight the vulnerabilities of FCAS:This event will spotlight the critical vulnerabilities faced by Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS), where the impacts of climate change compound existing economic and social challenges. These states, already grappling with limited fiscal space and weak governance, are disproportionately affected by climate-induced shocks that exacerbate food insecurity, disrupt livelihoods, and deepen economic instability. Somalia will be used as a case study to illustrate how climate change intensifies vulnerabilities, pushes states toward unsustainable debt cycles, and undermines their ability to invest in essential social protection systems. These issues will be situated within the broader FFD4 process, emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable and inclusive development financing.
• Demonstrate the role of social protection in building resilience: The event will explore how anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection systems can act as critical tools for building resilience in FCAS. These systems address immediate needs, reduce vulnerabilities, and create pathways for long-term stability, even in the face of escalating climate risks. By presenting evidence from successful programs, the session will highlight the cost-effectiveness of proactive social protection mechanisms compared to reactive humanitarian responses. Furthermore, the discussion will emphasize how investing in social protection can stabilize fragile economies, reduce migration pressures, and build adaptive capacity among vulnerable populations.
• Address the climate-driven debt crisis: A key focus of the event will be the link between climate change and the growing debt crisis in FCAS. Climate-induced shocks such as droughts, floods, and cyclones erode government revenues, increase public spending, and lead to greater reliance on borrowing. This vicious cycle is pushing many FCAS into unsustainable levels of debt, limiting their capacity to finance essential services like food security and social protection. The discussion will advocate for innovative approaches to integrate climate resilience into debt sustainability frameworks and explore mechanisms such as debt-for-adaptation swaps, concessional financing, and other solutions that address both the debt and climate crises.
• Explore innovative financing solutions for FCAS: The event will emphasize the need for targeted international support to FCAS through climate finance, debt relief, and risk-informed investment frameworks. Participants will discuss how aligning these financing mechanisms with the Paris Agreement, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, and the broader FFD4 goals can unlock resources for social protection and food security systems. The session will also explore ways to incentivize private sector investments and foster partnerships that prioritize the most vulnerable populations in FCAS.
• Advance policy and institutional collaboration: Leveraging the FFD4 as a platform, the event aims to foster dialogue among global policymakers, international organizations, and donors. By promoting multi-stakeholder partnerships and cross-sector collaboration, the session will highlight the importance of inclusive, locally led solutions for FCAS. The discussion will focus on how these partnerships can drive innovative responses to the interconnected crises of climate impacts, debt sustainability, and food insecurity while promoting long-term resilience.
• Provide actionable recommendations: The event will develop actionable recommendations for integrating climate resilience into global debt frameworks, enhancing access to climate finance, and strengthening adaptive social protection systems in FCAS. These recommendations will aim to inspire global commitments to prioritize FCAS in international development and financing agendas, ensuring they receive targeted support to address the compounded challenges of climate change, debt crises, and food insecurity. Special focus will be placed on identifying pathways for aligning these efforts with the FFD4 objectives.
• Catalyse momentum for international support: Finally, the event will serve as a catalyst for mobilizing stronger international support mechanisms for FCAS. It will advocate for new pledges, partnerships, and initiatives that address the nexus of climate change, debt sustainability, and food security, ensuring that vulnerable populations are not left behind. By linking the outcomes of this event to the broader FFD4 agenda, the session will seek to drive momentum for sustainable, inclusive, and equitable financing solutions tailored to the unique needs of FCAS.