When

Date: 25 September 2024

Format: Hybrid (in-person and online) roundtable with breakfast for in-person participants

Time: Breakfast at 7:30 AM; Event from 8:00 AM to 10:30 AM (New York time) (with a 15-minute comfort break)

Where: Jay Conference Fifth Avenue, The Presley Room, 15 West 38th Street, Lobby Level, New York; and online (Zoom link to be shared with registered participants)

Objectives

The event aims to:

• - Highlight the potential of anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection in building climate resilience.
• - Present the ASPIRE tool as a solution for identifying gaps and opportunities in social protection policies and systems for delivering climate resilience.
• - Discuss actionable steps to scale anticipatory social protection from 8 initial countries to a broader global initiative, with a focus on the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• - Map and engage stakeholders in the co-creation of a roadmap for the phased implementation of these initiatives.

About

The 2023 Synthesis Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a stark warning: the impacts of climate change on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than previously anticipated, and these risks will continue to escalate as global warming progresses. It is projected that climate change could push an additional 100 million people into extreme poverty, drive 130 million more into chronic hunger, and result in the global loss of 72 million full-time jobs by 2030. Additionally, by 2050, water scarcity could affect up to 3.2 billion people, and 250 million individuals could be displaced internally due to climate-related events.

In light of these dire projections, there is an urgent need to enhance resilience, particularly in the LDCs and SIDS. These regions are most vulnerable to climate impacts, and their populations face significant threats to their livelihoods, food security, and overall well-being. To break the cycle of poverty and inequality exacerbated by climate change, it is critical to deploy effective social protection programs that not only respond to crises but also anticipate and mitigate their impacts.

Social Protection Programs as a Tool for Climate Resilience
Social protection programs are already integral to the development strategies of many governments worldwide, providing access to basic services, improving health, nutrition, and education outcomes, and contributing to livelihood and income security. These programs help vulnerable communities maintain consumption levels during crises, thereby preventing the deepening of poverty. Nearly 45% of the world’s population is covered by at least one social protection benefit, and these programs reach close to 25% of the vulnerable population globally. This extensive reach makes social protection an effective channel for building climate resilience.

However, the full potential of social protection programs in delivering climate resilience can be realised if these programs are delivered in anticipatory and shock-responsive manner. Evidence shows that building resilience before a crisis hits is far more cost-effective than responding afterward. For instance, studies have shown that every US$1 spent on disaster resilience in Ethiopia and Kenya results in US$2.8 and US$2.9 in benefits, respectively. Despite this, many vulnerable countries face significant challenges in implementing anticipatory social protection, including limited data, poor information systems, inconsistent coverage, underdeveloped early warning systems, and lack of coordination among stakeholders.

The ASPIRE toolkit and country assessments
To address these challenges, IIED developed the ASPIRE (Anticipatory Social Protection Index for Resilience)¹ diagnostic tool a part of the ALL ACT (Alliance for Locally Led Transformative Resilience to Loss and Damage) initiative. ASPIRE provides a multi-layered approach to evaluate a country's readiness and effectiveness in delivering anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection. It assesses the maturity, readiness, and gaps within existing social protection programs by considering diverse national contexts, including varying climate risks, institutional capacities, and policy frameworks.

The ASPIRE tool has been rigorously tested through an analysis of eight countries—Malawi, Ghana, Senegal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Uganda, Ethiopia, and India—representing a diverse range of climate risk contexts. Within each of these countries, three social protection programs were assessed, encompassing different delivery mechanisms such as public works, food and in-kind assistance, and cash transfers. This analysis provided valuable insights into how social protection programs can be tailored to meet diverse climate risks and vulnerabilities.

The findings from the ASPIRE assessments in these eight countries and 24 social protection programs² have laid the foundation for understanding the key gaps and challenges that impede the integration of anticipatory response in social protection programs. These include issues related to policy objectives, innovation, risk definition, financial and administrative capacities, infrastructure, and institutional mechanisms. The detailed analysis offers a roadmap for governments and funding agencies to allocate resources more effectively, focusing on the most urgent gaps and impactful opportunities.

Building on ASPIRE: Moving from words to action
The next step is to move from these assessments to actionable steps on the ground. This event will focus on translating the ASPIRE toolkit-based analysis into a comprehensive roadmap for scaling up anticipatory social protection. The goal is to operationalize anticipatory efforts in three phases—starting with the initial eight countries, expanding to 32 countries, and ultimately aiming for universal coverage across all LDCs and SIDS.

We aim to build on the insights gained from the ASPIRE analysis to address the specific needs of different countries and create customized strategies that enhance resilience. This will involve identifying current gaps, estimating resource requirements, defining stakeholder roles, and establishing a realistic timeline for bridging these gaps. By doing so, we will strengthen the capacity of vulnerable countries to protect their populations against climate risks and move from reactive to proactive support during climate crises.

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• ¹Bharadwaj, R., Mitchell, T. and Karthikeyan, N. (2023). Anticipatory Social Protection Index for Resilience — ASPIRE. IIED, London.Available at https://www.iied.org/21901iied
• ²Bharadwaj, R., Mitchell, T., Karthikeyan, N., Raj, N., Chaliha , S., Abhilashi, R., Chinnaswamy, K., B, R., Deulgaonkar , I., Chakravarti, D. and McCabe, T. (2023). Delivering anticipatory social protection: country readiness assessment. IIED, London.Available at https://www.iied.org/21896iied

Proposed event structure/format

Agenda:

7:30 AM – 8:00 AM

Breakfast and Networking

8:00 AM – 8:15 AM

Welcome Remarks and Introduction

1. Overview of the climate challenges and the role of social protection
2. Introduction to the ASPIRE tool and its applicability

8:15 AM – 9:15 AM

Panel Discussion: Moving from Words to Action

1. Presentation of the meta-analysis findings based on ASPIRE assessments in 8 countries
2. Discussion on the practical solutions for integrating anticipatory actions into social protection systems

9:15 AM – 9:30 AM

Comfort Break

9:30 AM – 10:15 AM

Interactive Session: Co-creating the Roadmap

1. Engaging stakeholders in the discussion on the phases of scaling up anticipatory social protection
2. Identification of key roles, resource needs, and timeline for implementation

10:15 AM – 10:30 AM

Conclusion and Next Steps

1. Summary of key takeaways
2. Outline of the post-event actions leading to COP 29

Post-Event Actions

Following the event, a series of consultations will be conducted to refine the roadmap, leading to its formal launch at COP 29. This process will involve engaging stakeholders in detailed discussions to ensure the roadmap is actionable, inclusive, and aligned with the needs of vulnerable populations in LDCs and SIDS.