Abstract

Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) face an escalating crisis at the intersection of climate change, debt distress, conflict, and food insecurity. These compounding shocks undermine stability, deepen economic fragility, and severely constrain governments' ability to respond to crises. Climate-induced disasters disrupt food production and livelihoods, while unsustainable debt burdens divert scarce fiscal resources from social protection and resilience-building efforts. The impacts are particularly devastating in FCAS, where weak institutions, protracted conflicts, and governance challenges limit adaptive capacity.

This high-level side event will convene key stakeholders to explore actionable solutions for addressing these interlinked crises. Discussions will focus on innovative financing approaches, debt sustainability mechanisms, and resilience-building investments that can help break the cycle of fragility. The session will also feature the launch of a new research paper, Navigating the Triple Crisis: Climate, Debt, and Food Security in Somalia, offering an in-depth case study that illustrates the broader challenges faced by FCAS and potential policy responses.

Context

FCAS face a unique and compounding set of crises that threaten their stability, economic development, and food security. Climate change is a major threat multiplier in these countries, intensifying existing vulnerabilities by exacerbating conflict dynamics, weakening governance structures, and worsening economic distress. Increasingly frequent and severe climate-induced disasters, such as droughts, floods, and cyclones, are devastating agricultural systems, reducing household incomes, and forcing mass displacement.

At the same time, many FCAS are trapped in unsustainable debt cycles, limiting their ability to respond effectively to these escalating risks. Government revenues are often insufficient due to weak institutions, conflict-driven economic stagnation, and the costs associated with humanitarian crises. As a result, these countries rely on borrowing to finance emergency responses, basic services, and food imports. However, high debt burdens and limited fiscal space prevent investments in long-term resilience-building, social protection, and climate adaptation measures.

Food insecurity is perhaps the most visible and devastating consequence of these overlapping crises. FCAS are among the most food-insecure countries in the world, with climate change and debt distress severely undermining their ability to ensure food availability, accessibility, and stability. Rising food prices, supply chain disruptions, and reduced agricultural productivity have created a situation in which millions are at risk of hunger and malnutrition. The impacts are especially severe for marginalized groups, including women and children, who are disproportionately affected by economic shocks and food shortages.

Despite these challenges, opportunities exist to reshape the financing landscape and develop more integrated responses to climate, debt, and food security crises in FCAS. The Debt Sustainability Support Service (DSSS), initially designed for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), could offer a tailored mechanism to help FCAS restructure debt and unlock climate finance. Additionally, anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection systems have proven effective in mitigating food security crises, providing a framework for ensuring resilience in FCAS.

This side event at the 4th PrepComm of the Financing for Development (FFD4) process will convene policymakers, international financial institutions, and development practitioners to explore innovative solutions that address these intersecting challenges. It will highlight key insights from a new paper, Navigating the Triple Crisis: Climate, Debt, and Food Security in Somalia, which examines the interplay between these crises and proposes actionable policy solutions. By situating Somalia’s experience within the broader FCAS context, the session will explore how international financial mechanisms, social protection frameworks, and debt relief initiatives can be leveraged to break the cycle of fragility and build long-term resilience.

Key Objectives of the Event

1. Highlight the impact of the climate-debt-food security nexus in FCAS
   Climate change is acting as a major threat multiplier in FCAS, intensifying food insecurity, increasing debt burdens, and further deepening economic fragility. Climate-induced disasters such as droughts, floods, and cyclones are devastating agricultural production, reducing household incomes, and triggering displacement, making it harder for these states to stabilize their economies. At the same time, limited fiscal space forces governments to borrow at unsustainable rates, often prioritizing debt servicing over investments in climate adaptation and food security. This session will explore the structural challenges preventing FCAS from addressing these interlinked crises and highlight Somalia as a case study of how climate-driven economic shocks exacerbate fragility and food insecurity.

2. Demonstrate the role of anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection in building resilience
   Traditional emergency response mechanisms often arrive too late to prevent major food security crises in FCAS. Anticipatory social protection systems, which use early warning data, pre-arranged financing, and rapid response measures, offer a more effective approach to addressing climate-induced food insecurity. By delivering cash transfers, food assistance, and livelihood support ahead of crises, these systems reduce the economic shocks faced by households and prevent negative coping mechanisms such as asset depletion or migration. This session will explore how anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection programs can be integrated into national policies, ensuring that FCAS governments can proactively protect vulnerable populations rather than relying solely on humanitarian assistance.

3. Address the climate-driven debt crisis and explore financing solutions
   FCAS are caught in a vicious cycle where climate shocks erode government revenues, increase spending on disaster response, and push states further into debt. With a significant portion of public finances directed toward debt servicing, fewer resources are available for critical investments in climate adaptation, food security, and social protection. This discussion will examine how debt relief, concessional finance, and climate-adaptive fiscal policies can create the fiscal space necessary for resilience-building in FCAS. It will also explore the need for innovative financial instruments, such as climate-contingent debt instruments and risk-informed fiscal planning, to help FCAS governments better manage climate-induced financial shocks.

4. Explore the potential expansion of the Debt Sustainability Support Service (DSSS) to FCAS
   Originally developed to support Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the Debt Sustainability Support Service (DSSS) offers a tailored approach to restructuring debt while ensuring that countries can invest in climate resilience. Many FCAS face similar fiscal constraints, where high debt burdens prevent investments in adaptation and food security. Expanding DSSS to include FCAS could provide much-needed relief by integrating debt-for-adaptation swaps, concessional financing mechanisms, and risk-sharing approaches that allow FCAS to focus on long-term development rather than short-term crisis response. This session will explore how DSSS can be adapted to meet the needs of FCAS and what policy actions are required to operationalize this expansion.

5. Promote policy coherence and institutional collaboration
   Addressing the climate-debt-food security nexus requires stronger coordination between governments, international financial institutions, and development partners. However, FCAS often struggle to access global financing mechanisms due to governance constraints, weak institutional capacity, and stringent eligibility criteria. This session will foster dialogue on how to integrate FCAS priorities into international financing mechanisms, ensuring that debt relief, climate finance, and food security investments are accessible and effective. It will also examine how multilateral institutions can better coordinate their approaches to climate resilience and debt sustainability, ensuring that FCAS do not remain excluded from global financial solutions.

6. Generate actionable recommendations for FFD4 and beyond
   The event will conclude with a discussion on concrete policy actions and financing strategies that can be taken forward in the FFD4 negotiations and beyond. Participants will develop recommendations on how to integrate climate resilience into global debt frameworks, enhance access to concessional finance, and strengthen anticipatory social protection systems in FCAS. The session will also advocate for expanding the DSSS to fragile states as a key step in ensuring that climate-vulnerable economies are not left behind in international debt relief and climate finance efforts. By aligning these recommendations with FFD4 objectives, the event aims to inspire global commitments and drive momentum for actionable solutions that support FCAS in breaking free from cycles of fragility and food insecurity.