When

Date: 14 October 2025

Time: 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM (UK Time)

Format: Online

Abstract

Early action through social protection offers one of the most effective ways to build climate resilience, protecting vulnerable households before disasters strike and reducing the cost of response. This online event will launch a landmark economic assessment based on ASPIRE diagnostics across eight countries and 24 programmes. The analysis shows that anticipatory direct benefit transfers and resilience-building investments delivered through existing social protection systems are far more cost-effective than reactive humanitarian response — saving costs, reducing losses, strengthening resilience, and safeguarding food security. Government partners will share how ASPIRE roadmaps are guiding reforms and shaping proposals for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), while philanthropies, bilateral and multilateral funders, MDBs, corporates, and civil society will discuss how to scale this approach. By bringing together this coalition, the event will show how evidence can be turned into action — blending finance, strengthening national systems, and enabling vulnerable countries to protect households and economies before crises escalate. The findings also provide governments with practical evidence to help operationalise emerging international legal obligations, including the forthcoming ICJ advisory opinion on climate change..

Background

Climate change is driving escalating economic and human losses, particularly in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In 2024 alone, 58 climate-related disasters each caused more than US$1 billion in damages, totalling over US$400 billion globally. For vulnerable countries, these repeated shocks are eroding hard-won development gains, worsening food insecurity, and pushing households deeper into poverty.

While governments and donors invest heavily in social protection (over US$500 billion annually) across low and middleincome countries most systems remain reactive, delivering support only after crisis strikes. Evidence shows that building resilience in advance is far more effective. For every US$1 invested in anticipatory or resilience-building action, countries can save between US$2 and US$5 in avoided losses and development gains, compared to humanitarian response, which often costs more than it delivers

To address this challenge, IIED and partners developed the ASPIRE (Anticipatory Social Protection Index for Resilience) diagnostic tool, which assesses a country’s readiness to deliver early action through social protection across policies, systems, programmes, and delivery mechanisms. Applying ASPIRE in eight countries and 24 social protection programmes, we have generated new economic evidence on how anticipatory direct benefit transfers (DBTs) and longer-term resilience-building investments can reduce household losses, protect food security, and strengthen national systems.

Scaling this approach requires blended finance and partnerships. Philanthropies and foundations can provide catalytic capital and innovation funding. Bilateral donors and multilateral development banks (MDBs) can align investment pipelines with anticipatory and resilience priorities. Corporates with supply chains in climate-vulnerable countries can invest in protecting workers and communities, reducing business risks while enhancing resilience. Local NGOs and think tanks bring delivery networks and knowledge to ensure last-mile effectiveness. Insurance mechanisms, including those under the Global Shield initiative, can complement these efforts by enabling pre-arranged payouts that trigger support before losses escalate.

This event will launch the findings of a groundbreaking economic assessment of early action through social protection, based on ASPIRE diagnostics across eight countries and 24 programmes. The analysis demonstrates the financial and social value of anticipatory direct benefit transfers and resilience-building investments, showing that these approaches are far more cost-effective than humanitarian aid or existing reactive social protection systems.

Government partners will share how ASPIRE diagnostics and roadmaps are guiding reforms and shaping investment-ready proposals for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) and other financing opportunities. The event will also highlight the role of philanthropies, bilateral and multilateral funders, MDBs, corporates with global supply chains, and local delivery partners in scaling this approach.

The findings can also play an important role in supporting governments to act on emerging international legal obligations. As the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivers its advisory opinion on climate change, countries will need concrete pathways to demonstrate how they are protecting people and reducing risks. This analysis provides practical evidence that can be used at the national level to show alignment with the ICJ opinion, turning legal principles into actionable policy through anticipatory and resilience-building social protection.

By bringing together this coalition, the event aims to turn evidence into action, blending finance, strengthening existing systems, and building a pathway to protect vulnerable households and economies before crises strike.

Objectives

The event will:

• Launch the new economic assessment of early action through social protection, sharing evidence from eight countries and 24 programmes that shows how anticipatory direct benefit transfers and resilience-building investments save costs, reduce losses, and strengthen food security.
• Showcase country perspectives on how ASPIRE diagnostics and roadmaps are helping governments identify gaps, strengthen systems, and prepare investment-ready proposals.
• Demonstrate pathways for unlocking finance, particularly through the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), while also aligning with bilateral and multilateral donors, philanthropies, and insurance-linked mechanisms such as the Global Shield initiative.
• Engage a broad coalition of stakeholders including governments, philanthropies, bilateral funders, MDBs, UN agencies, corporates with supply chains in climate-vulnerable countries, local NGOs, and think tanks, to co-create and scale anticipatory social protection approaches.
• Invite LDCs, SIDS, and other vulnerable countries to undertake similar ASPIRE assessments and roadmap processes, enabling them to access climate finance and protect communities before crises strike.
• Support governments in responding to international legal obligations, including the forthcoming ICJ advisory opinion on climate change, by providing evidence and tools to operationalise climate resilience through social protection at the national level.

Proposed event structure/format

Duration: 90 minutes (online)

• Welcome and opening (10 min) Framing remarks on climate risks and the role of social protection in building resilience, with reference to how this evidence can support governments in advancing national priorities and responding to global processes such as development of proposal for Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) and forthcoming ICJ advisory opinion.
• Presentation of findings (15 min) Launch of the Economic Case for Early Action through Social Protection, highlighting how anticipatory action and resiliencebuilding investments deliver better value than reactive approaches.
• Government perspectives (30 min) Country partners share experiences with ASPIRE diagnostics and roadmaps, and how the findings are being used to shape proposals for the FRLD and other financing opportunities.
• Financing and partnerships Panel (30 min) Philanthropies, bilateral donors, MDBs, corporates, UN agencies, and civil society explore how to scale this approach, blend finance, and strengthen systems, situating the evidence within wider global efforts on resilience, loss and damage, and legal obligations.
• Closing and next steps (5 min) Key takeaways and commitments, with an outline of post-event consultations towards COP and FRLD proposals, and how this coalition can help countries align resilience-building with both domestic priorities and international expectations.

Post-Event Actions

Following the event, a series of consultations will be conducted to refine the roadmap, leading to its formal launch at COP 29. This process will involve engaging stakeholders in detailed discussions to ensure the roadmap is actionable, inclusive, and aligned with the needs of vulnerable populations in LDCs and SIDS.